JGP's The System: Handicapping angle for horsemen and handicappers.

Top Kentucky Oaks Hopefuls

2011-11-27T14:27:00.002-05:00

Fillies of 2009 As Ranked By The System

1. My Miss Aurelia
Unanimously #1.

2.Grace Hall
Not an ideal trip in the BC against #1. Have to imagine connections are looking forward to a 2012 rematch.

3. Disposable Pleasure
Probably the best Giacomo I've ever seen. Made an eye-Catching move in her stakes debut and seemed to naturally get herself involved. Tough and now battle-tested after a disastrous trip. Now needs litmus test from the 'Big Girls'.

4. Charm The Maker
Good for the connections for skipping BC after only beaten a length in Oak Leaf. Give daughter of Giant's Causeway the extra week and lighter spot and now she's a stakes winner. Some maturity issues to iron out but potential is there.

5. One Fire Baby
Swept Churchill Fall stakes, but she sits fourth here. Probably not getting enough respect from us, but I still see her having a shorter ceiling than the tops.

September 10: Super Derby

2011-09-09T14:43:00.003-04:00

Louisiana Downs; Race 11- Super Derby

Prayer for Relief- 15
Meistersinger- 12.4
Malibu Glow- 12
Alternation- 12
Awesome Bet- 12
Populist Politics- 8
Trubs- 7.8
GW's d'Oro- 3
Mr. Woodrow- 2.5

Kentucky Derby Results

2011-05-29T21:07:00.003-04:00

1st- Animal Kingdom- 5th highest System #
2nd- Nehro- 4th highest System #
3rd- Mucho Macho Man- 2nd highest System #
4th- Shackleford- 7th highest System #

*With the late defections of Toby's Corner and Uncle Mo the rankings were adjusted when the two horses mentioned were removed from the list.

Final Kentucky Derby System Rankings

2011-05-01T14:37:00.004-04:00

1. Dialed In
2. Mucho Macho Man
3. Archarcharch
4. Toby's Corner
5. Nehro
6. Animal Kingdom
7. Midnight Interlude
8. Uncle Mo
9. Shackleford
10. Soldat
11. Twice the Appeal
12. Master of Hounds
13. Brilliant Speed
14. Pants On Fire
15. Santiva
16. Stay Thirsty
17. Comma to the Top
18. Twinspired
19. Decisive Moment
20. Watch Me Go

Kentucky Derby Top 20 (From the Top 20 Earners)

2011-04-26T12:33:00.003-04:00

1. Dialed In
2. Mucho Macho Man
3. Nehro
4. Archarcharch
5. Toby's Corner
6. Midnight Interlude
7. Master Of Hounds
8. Uncle Mo
9. Shackleford
10. Twice The Appeal
11. Soldat
12. Santiva
13. Animal Kingdom
14. Brilliant Speed
15. Stay Thirsty
16. Comma to the Top
17. Decisive Moment
18. Pants On Fire
19. Twinspired
20. Watch Me Go

KENTUCKY DERBY RANKS; DOWN TO 25

2011-04-12T13:58:00.004-04:00

1. Dialed In
2. Toby's Corner
3. Mucho Macho Man
4. Santiva
5. Uncle Mo
6. The Factor
7. Astrology
8. Rattlesnake Bridge
9. Soldat
10. Sway Away
11. Dance City
12. Animal Kingdom
13. Silver Medallion
14. Jaycito
15. Elite Alex
16. Stay Thirsty
17. Twice The Appeal
18. Shackleford
19. Cal Nation
20. Pants On Fire
21. Nehro
22. Anthony's Cross
23. Archarcharch
24. Prime Cut
25. Arthur's Tale

KY DERBY RANKINGS; APRIL 5

2011-04-05T18:33:00.003-04:00

1. Uncle Mo
- All set for Saturday's G1 Wood.

2. Dialed In
- Maintains his #2 spot after FL Derby triumph.

3. The Factor (7)
- Moving on up after others disappoint in FL Derby.

4. To Honor And Serve (4)
- Still the most difficult horse to figure in top 10.

5. Santiva
- Ran great off bench in Louisiana, connections wait for Blue Grass..Ok...

6. Mucho Macho Man (8)
- We'll give him shoe excuse at the Fair Grounds. Onto the big one.

7. Soldat (3)
- Ran A LOT like a turf horse in the FL Derby. We'll see what the do, I'm off him for the KY Derby.

8. Astrology (10)
- Ran super in Sunland, let's see if connections try to squeeze one in before Derby.

9. Rattlesnake Bridge
- Doubtful for Wood Memorial. Arkansas? No word from barn.

10. Stay Thirsty (6)
- No way around that he looked poor in the FL Derby. Pletch says they'll run at Churchill if they're allowed.

11. Sway Away
- Ok, we'll toss Arkansas race based on what he's shown us prior. Must regroup in Ark Derby.

12. Cal Nation
- 'Be in it to win it' connections say Derby is not on their minds.

13. Anthony's Cross
- Big test in relatively weak SA Derby. We'll see...

14. Jaycito
- See ANTHONY'S CROSS

15. Brethren
- Maintains his position after an ideal week.

16. Toby's Corner
- Motion going to Wood.

17. Animal Kingdowm (19)
- Connections unsure of status. Didn't run super-fast and was on polytrack.

18. Dance City
- Impressive at GP. Arkansas?

19. Premiere Pegasus (20)
- Like to see him validate his San Felipe win.

20. Shackleford (new)
- Ran winning race in FL. Bet the house he'll run at Churchill if he gets in.

21. Crimson China
-Blue Grass next, dirt major concern.

22. Pants On Fire
- Stole LA Derby if you ask us.

23. Sour
- Co-headlines a weak Ill Derby.

24. Watch Me Go
- See #23 SOUR.

25. Elite Alex
- Could rebound in ARK Derby. Runnning out of chances.

26. Twice The Appeal
-A consistent type.

27. Archarcharch
- Onto Ark Derby.

28. Prime Cut
- Kind of impressive on LA Derby day.

29. Flashpoint
- Beat all the disappointing ones in FL Derby.

30. Norman Asborjnson
- Onto the Wood

KENTUCKY DERBY RANKINGS...AND THEN THERE WERE 30

2011-03-29T08:09:00.000-04:00

1. Uncle Mo
2. Dialed In
3. Soldat
4. To Honor And Serve
5. Santiva
6. Stay Thirsty
7. The Factor
8. Mucho Macho Man
9. Rattlesnake Bridge
10. Astrology
11. Sway Away
12. Cal Nation
13. Anthony's Cross
14. Jaycito
15. Brethren
16. Toby's Corner
17. Machen
18. Dance City
19. Animal Kingdom
20. Premiere Pegasus
21. Wilburn
22. Crimson China
23. Pants On Fire
24. Sour
25. Watch Me Go
26. JP's Gusto
27. JJ's Lucky Train
28. Archarcharch
29. Prime Cut
30. Arch Traveler

KENTUCKY DERBY TRIAL RANKINGS

2011-03-13T09:58:00.002-04:00

1. Uncle Mo
2. Dialed In(3)
3. Soldat(6)
4. To Honor And Serve(2)
5. Sway Away (7),(9)
6. Santiva
7. Stay Thirsty (9), (13)
8. Mucho Macho Man
9. Brethren (5),(4)
10. Machen (12)
11. Cal Nation
12. Bind (6), (5)
13. Wilkinson (14)
14. Rattlesnake Bridge (18)
15. Astrology
16. Rogue Romance
17. Anthony's Cross
18. Toby's Corner (11)
19. Fort Hughes (22)
20. Jaycito (38)
21. Left (25)
22. Sweet Ducky (20)
23. Wilburn (new)
24. Premiere Pegasus (28)
25. Sour (26), (19)
26. The Factor(24)
27. Alternation(32)
28. Free Entry (27)
29. Heron Lake (28),(21)
30. JP's Gusto(28)
31. Riveting Reason(30)
32. JJ's Lucky Train(33)
33. Archarcharch(35)
34. Travelin Man (29)(25)
35. Watch Me Go (new)
36. Nacho Business (new)
37. Arch Traveler (new)
38. Albergatti (28)
39. Majestic Harbor
40. Fusa Code(new)

2011-03-09T13:39:00.003-05:00

1. Uncle Mo
2. Dialed In(3)
3. Soldat(6)
4. To Honor And Serve(2)
5. Brethren(4)
6. Santiva
7. Sway Away (9)
8. Mucho Macho Man
9. Stay Thirsty (13)
10. Machen (12)
11. Cal Nation
12. Bind (6), (5)
13. Toby's Corner (11)
14. Wilkinson
15. Astrology
16. Rogue Romance
17. Anthony's Cross
18. Rattlesnake Bridge
19. Fort Hughes (22)
20. Free Entry (27)
21. Heron Lake
22. Sweet Ducky (20)
23. The Factor(24)
24. Albergatti(26)
25. Left(new)
26. Sour (19)
27. Alternation(32)
28. Awesome Patriot (new)
29. Travelin Man (25)
30. JP's Gusto(28)
31. Riveting Reason(30)
32. JJ's Lucky Train(33)
33. Archarcharch(35)
34. Dance City(31)
35. Runflatout(40)
36. Nacho Business (new)
37. Arch Traveler (new)
38. Jaycito
39. Majestic Harbor
40. Fusa Code(new)

KY DERBY TRAIL RANKINGS (VERSION 5)

2011-02-26T20:38:00.003-05:00

1. Uncle Mo
2. Dialed In(3)
3. Soldat(6)
4. To Honor And Serve(2)
5. Brethren(4)
6. Bind(5)
7. Santiva
8. Mucho Macho Man
9. Sway Away
10. Cal Nation
11. Toby's Corner
12. Machen
13. Stay Thirsty
14. Wilkinson
15. Astrology
16. Rogue Romance
17. Anthony's Cross
18. Rattlesnake Bridge
19. Fort Hughes (22)
20. Sweet Ducky
21. Heron Lake
22. Free Enty(27)
23. The Factor(24)
24. Albergatti(26)
25. Left(new)
26. Sour (19)
27. Alternation(32)
28. Crossbow(36)
29. Travelin Man (25)
30. JP's Gusto(28)
31. Riveting Reason(30)
32. JJ's Lucky Train(33)
33. Archarcharch(35)
34. Dance City(31)
35. Runflatout(40)
36. Nacho Business (new)
37. Arch Traveler (new)
38. Jaycito
39. Majestic Harbor
40. Fusa Code(new)

THREE- YEAR-OLD RANKINGS

2011-02-22T07:00:00.003-05:00

KENTUCKY DERBY TRAIL RANKINGS (VERSION 4)

1. Uncle Mo
2. To Honor And Serve
3. Dialed In
4. Brethren
5. Bind
6. Soldat
7. Santiva
8. Mucho Macho Man
9. Sway Away
10. Cal Nation
11. Toby's Corner
12. Machen
13. Stay Thirsty
14. Wilkinson
15. Astrology
16. Rogue Romance
17. Anthony's Cross
18. Rattlesnake Bridge
19. Sour
20. Sweet Ducky
21. Heron Lake
22. Fort Hughes
23. Casper's Touch
24. The Factor
25. Travelin Man
26. Albergatti
27. Free Entry
28. JP's Gusto
29. Cool Blue Red Hot
30. Riveting Reason
31. Dance City
32. Alternation
33. JJ's Lucky Train
34. Shackleford
35. Archarcharch
36. Crossbow
37. Lumberjack Yard
38. Jaycito
39. Majestic Harbor
40. Runflatout

3-YEAR-OLD RANKINGS

2011-02-15T17:46:00.001-05:00

KENTUCKY DERBY TRAIL RANKINGS (Version #3)
(Horses that have started at a route distance are eligible)

1. Uncle Mo
2. To Honor And Serve
3. Dialed In
4. Machen
5. Brethren
6. Cal Nation
7. Rogue Romance
8. Soldat
9. Santiva
10. Wilkinson
11. Toby's Corner
12. JP's Gusto
13. Astrology
14. Stay Thirsty
15. Sour
16. Clubhouse Ride
17. Anthony's Cross
18. Sweet Ducky
19. Mucho Macho Man
20. Riveting Reason
21. JJ's Lucky Train
22. Cool Blue Red Hot
23. Casper's Touch
24. Free Entry
25. Heron Lake
26. Comma to the Top
27. Caleb's Posse
28. Silver Medallion
29. Elite Alex
30. Majestic Harbor
31. Shackleford
32. Washington Rules
33. Lumberjack Yard
34. Private Prize
35. Pants On Fire

Sprinters Yet To Stretch Out (Ineligible)

Travelin Man
Runflatout
The Factor
Fort Hughes
Indian Winter
Crossbow
Sovereign Default
Manicero

THREE-YEAR-OLD RANKINGS

2011-02-07T12:20:00.004-05:00

KENTUCKY DERBY TRAIL RANKINGS (Version #2)
(Horses that have started at a route distance are eligible)

1. Uncle Mo
2. To Honor And Serve
3. Dialed In
4. Machen
5. Boys of Tosconova
6. Tapizar
7. Brethren (8)

Continues to put in impressive breezes and is the type that should stay around the top of this list until he tells you otherwise. The one to beat in the Sam Davis on Saturday.

8. Soldat (7)
9. Rogue Romance (10)

Will battle for favoritism in the Risen Star if connections decide to go in that direction. Love the time McPeek has given him. Moved up as I was just not that impressed by Wilkinson's (10) Lecomte.

10. Wilkinson (9)
11. Santiva
12. Toby's Corner (21)

His Whirlaway was impressive as he passed the entire field while making a long, yet eye-catching run. Plenty of room for growth and improvement as well.

13. Comma to the Top
14. JP's Gusto
15. Gourmet Dinner
16. Astrology (17)
17. Sour (12)
18. Clubhouse Ride
19. Sweet Ducky (16)
20. Stay Thirsty
21. Mucho Macho Man (18)
22. Monzon
23. JJ's Lucky Train (25)

Ran super in the Whirlaway just couldnt last and lost to a better horse, again. Last time it was Monzon (22) and now Toby's Corner (17).

24. Cool Blue Red Hot (20)
25. Shackleford (new)

Ran well for Romans on Saturday. Although he passed the 1 1/8 miles test, feel he will be limited when it comes to distance.

26. Caleb's Posse
27. Private Prize
28. Elite Alex (31)

Moved up by others dropping down.

29. Pants On Fire (24)

30. Casper's Touch (new)

Ran well enough in the Saturday 1x at Gulfstream to merit a spot on the board. Thought he encountered some trouble and is probably is better than his chart will show. One of many for McPeek on the list.

31. Washington Rules (29)

32. Lumberjack Yard

33. Rescind the Trade (23)

Sprinters Yet To Stretch Out (Ineligible)

Travelin Man
Heron Lake
Runflatout
The Factor
Heron Lake
Fort Hughes
Indian Winter
Crossbow
Sovereign Default
Cal Nation
Majestic Harbor
Manicero

3-YEAR-OLD RANKINGS

2011-02-01T08:02:00.005-05:00

KENTUCKY DERBY TRAIL RANKINGS
(Horses that have started at a route distance are eligible)

1. Uncle Mo- Pletcher

Most publicized of his crop, had his first breeze back on Sunday at Palm Meadows. Record is flawless and has been flawless visually. Has shown in every-which-way that he is a super horse. In tremendous hands.

2. To Honor And Serve- Mott

Working steadily for HOF'er Mott. Connections have been quite clear the Fountain of Youth is next. That spot is turning into one heckuva race. Has all the potential in the world. Love the freshening they gave him and is absolutely main threat to the man at the top.

3. Dialed In- Zito

Zito hasnt just been lucky to win a few triple crown races. He practically told the public he has a serious horse when he scratched out of the NW1x on Jan 21 in favor of the Holy Bull off of just one run. His horse backed him up. Scary performance with still plenty of ceiling to improve. Dangerous.

4. Machen- Howard

Son of Distorted Humor schooled a solid MSW group at the Fair Grounds going 6f in his debut. He did it the right way that day winning from well off the pace by 5 lengths. Came back on short enough rest to win from off the pace again, by the same distance, in a two-turn NW1x score. No horse has ever won the KY Derby without a 2-year-old start.

5. Boys at Tosconova- Dutrow

Strictly reading between the lines on this super-juvenile, I would have to regretfully say, he is off the trail. Top conditioner pulled the plug on Holy Bull and was quoted with a, "I don't have to make the Derby with this horse," plea. Dutrow knows what he's doing and knows there is a lot of money to be made. Kept on trail list of contenders out of respect, and slim hope he is still in the hat.

6. Tapizar- Asmussen

You want to talk about turning the corner. Galloped at Churchill Downs with a "where did that come?", performance, then took his confident mindset to Santa Anita where he thrashed foes in first stakes attempt. No secret on how Santa Anita dirt has been playing.....zzzooooom. Something I hear they are looking into, this is an interesting one that I feel may be more of a player in the preps than in the big one itself.

7. Soldat- McLaughlin

Can he handle dirt? Well, he can sure handle slop. Whether you chose to call him Barbaro or Big Brown after his NW1x romp on the Gulfstream slop is up to you. Either way, he was impressive. Connections have been outspoken on how they still are curious as to how he'll handle a dry slip. Efforts sprinting on dry track suggest he handled it just fine. On the day of his front-running victory, on the lead was the place to be.

8. Brethren- Pletcher

Love the time Pletcher has given the little-brother of last year's Derby winner. A winner in both lifetime starts, Brethren is all set to go in the G III Sam Davis on Feb 12. Ceiling is high since he has yet to travel two-turns.

9. Wilkinson- Howard

Winner of the Lecomte was unlucky to not win in his NW1x prior to that which was won by the erratic Justin Phillip. Game in the Lecomte, although not sure how good of a race that was. Will get litmus test in the Risen Star.

10. Rogue Romance- McPeek

McPeek has given this one plenty of time after his solid effort in the Breeders' Cup. Solid grass form translated to Churchill's dirt in that contest as he was no match for Uncle Mo and Boys At Tosconova. Wait and see but must be watched. Will he end up back on the weeds?

11. Santiva- Keneally

Love the time Keneally has given the KYJC winner. Has trained like clock-work since and is aimed for th FOY. Will make his second start for current conditioner as he has been passed around three times already.

12. Sour- Stall

Son of Lemon Drop Kid was second to Machen in his debut and galloped out like, well, a Lemon Drop Kid going 6f. Came back to win like an absolute pro on Jan 31. Like rival Machen, Sour is lightly raced having just the two starts. Looked like sky's the limit in his maiden scamper.

13. Comma to the Top- Miller

Cannot fault anything he's done as he has already totaled over $550k in earnings. That said he has never raced on dirt and I would not tout him while trying it. Think he'll end up on the grass and should make a nice stack of coin there. Paddy O'Prado ended up there, that said, he wasnt beaten far in the Derby.

14. JP's Gusto- Hoffmans

Another precocious one. I feel that the classic's distances are a bit out of his reach. This time of year, you need to find out though. Think he's a player in the preps but a toss in the big one.

15. Gourmet Dinner- Standridge

Tried very hard in the Holy Bull. Do not like that this horse has not had a break. His earnings are there, if the Derby is the connections' plan. Form would look a whole bunch cleaner if he stayed on the east coast and was given some time rather than make that Cash Call trip. All said after the fact, of course. Distance limitations.

16. Sweet Ducky- Breen

Ran his guts out in the Holy Bull and gave you the feeling like he's the kind of horse with a huge heart that makes him competitive against horses that are still improving. Need to respect his grit in the Holy Bull, and could be useful if not rushed to the task. Gives me a Jackson Bend feeling.

17. Clubhouse Ride- Lewis

Has raced in every month since his debut in April. Hate to see that as he will face fresh horses all spring and summer. Majority of connections in this country couldnt be paid to take a break at this time of year. I'll always go with the fresh horse. With all that said, can't hate on what he's done.

18. Mucho Macho Man- Ritvo

To Honor And Serve (2x), Gourmet Dinner, Dialed In and Curlinello are the horses that have won the races this a-other-than has ran respectively in. If the timing is right, why not run him in a first-level allowance and run him back in a major prep. This horse may need a relief in competition.

19. Stay Thirsty- Pletcher

Another one Pletch has given plenty of time. Super erractic when overwhelmed in the BC. Note that was his first time around two turns and he was running against Uncle Mo and Boys. Every reason to improve.

20. Cool Blue Red Hot- Penna

Has done nothing wrong in his three lifetime starts. In his most recent, he dueled with Soldat, and although the winner went on to win by 10, I feel this one deserves another shot. Maybe he ran on talent and class and didnt handle the slop? Maybe, maybe not. We'll see him again, whether its another 1x or something like the Sam Davis.

21. Toby's Corner- Motion

Has captured two straight at Laurel in impressive fashion. Has yet to travel two-turns as it seems he may be begging for it. In that case ceiling is high. Looking at it from the other side of things, what did he beat at Laurel? Motion doing the right thing and bringing him along slowly and conservatively. Whirlaway next.

22. Rescind The Trade- Violette

Two-for-two Violette colt did it like he will appreciate more distance in his NW1x victory. Aimed for the Whirlaway after showing a few breezes at Palm Meadows. That could be taken either way, but certainly a short price in the Whirlaway after two professional victories.

23. Monzon- Corras

Captured the Count Fleet on Jan 1 and will head to Tampa for a swing at graded money in the Sam Davis. Finshed well in the Count Fleet as everybody up front tailed off, besided for #23 JJ's Lucky Train. Interested to see how he handles tougher at Tampa.

24. Pants On Fire- Breen

Ran a head-scratcher in the Count Fleet before getting nipped by Wilkinson in the Lecomte. Would bet he shows back up in the Risen Star, which will be a much deeper field. Between he and Wilkinson, they should have their hands full in the next step in the Big Easy.

25. JJ's Lucky Train- Anderson

Ran super in the Count Fleet and is absolutely one to reckon with in the Whirlaway on Saturday. While everything else up front faded in the Jan 1 stakes, he hung gamely. Can he repeat the performance? Can he improve? We'll see.

26. Caleb's Posse- Von Hemel

Not a big fan of the Smarty Jones winner, but he continues to prove me wrong. Do I think he beat much in that spot? No particularly. However, the Southwest is right around the corner and he'll have another shot to keep proving me and all other doubters wrong.

27. Private Prize- McPeek

Good effort from the son of Pure Prize in the Tropical Park Derby. Thought he handled the distance while being beat by less than a length on the lead. Not over the moon on this one but his November handling of Wilkinson bodes well.

28. Justin Phillip- Asmussen

Problematic Zayat colt, may benefit from castration, blinkers off, and a magic wand. Talent is there, mind seems to be somewhere else.

29. Washington Rules- McPeek

Was quite impressive winning an off-the-turf MSW at Gulfstream. His effort against Pletcher shooter Stay Thirsty at Saratoga shouldnt go without mention as well. Turned off by the fact that McPeek had him entered on the grass after such a promising debut on dirt. Roman Ruler & Silver Charm may keep the sharp conditioner's mind on the dirt.

30. Shadow Warrior- Arnold

Feel like this AP Indy colt ran well enough in his recent third-place finish in a Gulfstream NW1x. That heat was won by Black N Beauty, a pace presence in the Holy Bull. Could see him in the next NW1x going 1 1/8m. Think this lightly-raced one will relish the added distance.

31. Elite Alex- Ritchey

Used his sophomore debut as a right tune-up for what seems to be the Southwest. Ritchey has had a nice one before, this one's papa.

32. Lumberjack Yard- Stidam

Can't complain about his two starts, most recently a MSW score at the Fair Grounds. Flashed speed in his debut and got caught. Grew up a bit and stalked in a convincing graduating effort.

33. Preachintothedevil- Contessa

New York bred was impressive against his restricted company on Jan 1 in a NYB stakes. Will run in the Whirlaway on Feb 5 and see what he can do.

Sprinters (not eligible): Travelin Man, The Factor, Heron Lake, Runflatout, Manicero, Indian Winter, Fort Hughes, Crossbow, Sovereign Default.

System Profiles: Uncle Mo vs. To Honor And Serve

2010-12-22T21:16:00.005-05:00

While Uncle Mo (Indian Charlie) has garnered all the attention, and deservedly so, Hall of Famer Bill Mott has a weapon of his own to threaten the East coast's dominant Todd Pletcher trainee.

The Bernardini 2-year-old recently captured the 1 1/8 miles Grade II Remsen in 1:50.03, while on the lead the entire way. To Honor And Serve finished his last 1/8 of a mile in 13.42, the having finished the G II being hand-urged by John Velazquez makes it all that more impressive.

This is in no way a devil's advocate piece on how To Honor And Serve ($575k Live Oak yearling purchase) is better than Uncle Mo ($220k Repole yearling). I don't believe it myself at the moment. Just if the Derby was tomorrow, these two would be your first and second choices.

Here are the two juveniles represented in System #s as of today:

Uncle Mo- 19.33

To Honor And Serve- 15.83

System Profile: Gypsy's Warning (SAF)

2010-12-16T10:11:00.002-05:00

By the stallion Mogok, who is a half brother to Machiavellian Gypsy's Warning has proved her South African form was no fluke since her North American arrival.

The 5-year-old captured the Grade III Eatontown in May before grabbing thirds in the G I Beverly D and G I Yellow Ribbon. Cut back in distance by trainer Graham Motion, she proved a superior miler while capturing the G I Matriarch at the 1-mile distance.

Gypsy's Warning will return to racing in the Spring season and carries a 17.06 System number into her next outing.

RESULTS; Matriarch (Grade I)

2010-11-29T09:30:00.003-05:00

Friday November 26; Hollywood Park

(Horse; System #)

Gypsy's Warning (16.3; 3rd highest #)
Wasted Tears ( 18; HIGHEST #)
Go Forth North (10.3; 6th highest #)

Hollywood Matriarch (Grade I) : Friday November 26

2010-11-23T07:44:00.002-05:00

Horse; System #

Wasted Tears- 18
Special Duty- 17.5
Gypsy's Warning- 16.3
Westwood Pride- 13.3
Lily Fa Pootz- 12.7
Go Forth North- 10.3
Camile C.- 7

RESULTS; Mrs Revere (Grade II)

2010-11-22T15:01:00.004-05:00

Horse (System # & ranking)

WIN- Aruna (12.37; 2nd highest)

PLACE- Wild Mia (10.6; 4th highest)

SHOW- Fugitive Angel (12.58; highest)

Scratched: Gitchee Goomie

Mrs. Revere (Grade II)

2010-11-17T16:59:00.002-05:00

Saturday November 20 Churchill Downs Race 9

Fugitive Angel- 12.58
Aruna- 12.37
Gitchee Goomie- 11.67
Snowtop Mountain- 11.66
Wild Mia- 10.6
In The Slips- 9.16
Dade Babe- 9
Ice Mist- 8.53
La Cloche- 6.88
Stars to Shine- 6.62
Quiet By Seven- 3.05

Saturday July 17: Virginia Oaks

2010-07-13T16:08:00.002-04:00

Check the Label- 18.13
Kilmore Quay- 10
Martita Sangrita- 8
In The Rough- 7
Midway Holiday- 6.6
Frances Gardner- 6
Jungle Tale- 5.5
Distorted Promise- 4.3
MorekissesforPatti- 3.8
Another Smokey- 2.8

Lecomte Stakes Grade III $100,000

2010-01-18T17:39:00.002-05:00

Saturday January 23 Fair Grounds
(Horse; Pre-race System #)

Maximus Ruler- 7.7
Worldly- 6.6
Turf Mel0dy- 6
Citrus Kid- 5.4
Ron The Greek- 5.3
Cool Bullet- 5.1
Callide Valley- 3.8
Bwanagoldmine- 3.5
Letsgetitonmon-2.9
Depaul- 2.9
Rock Hard- 1.3

Euro Posts High BC Number

2009-11-03T11:29:00.002-05:00

Aidan O'brien's Rip Van Winkle (Galileo) has earned the highest System Number of all BC Nominees, as was determined Tuesday morning.

The 3-year-old brings a two-race win streak into the $5,000,000 Classic. Those two wins were both Group 1's. Those triumphs were in July at Goodwood and the Queen Elizabeth II at Ascot in September.

Rip Van Winkle has lost three times this year, all races where Sea The Stars finished first.

The Coolmore color-barrer carries a System Number of 25.2.

American 3-Year-Old Filly Top 10

2009-10-17T11:32:00.004-04:00

1. Rachel Alexandra

Resting queen needs no introduction

2. Careless Jewel

Alabama Champ could play a huge factor in the ladies classic

3. Gozzip Girl

Looks for revenge in today's QEII. #4 on this list is breathing down her throat.

4. Silver Reunion

Freaked on the grass at Saratoga, looks to legitimize that performance in the Valley View.

5. Sara Louise

Another Godolphin threat ran with Indian Blessing, that is saying something.

6. Miss World

Really improving Clement filly looks to beat Gozzip Girl without an * next to it.

7. Lady Shakespeare

Improving sister to the phenomenal Shakespeare is a trained by the scary sharp Roger Attfield. Could really climb up this list after QEII.

8. Shared Account

Second Motion filly on the list. Lake Placid winner may not want to be on the lead and that is where she found herself in the Garden City.

9. Hot Cha Cha

Arlington-based filly seems to show up.

10. Flashing

Godolphin-sprinter, does that best. The Test was just OK this year but she ran well against Informed Decision at Presque Isle. Looks to the Raven Run.

RESULTS; Keeneland Oct 15 Jessamine

2009-10-16T13:01:00.002-04:00

Race 8 1 1/16 poly 2YO fillies
(Horse; Pre-race System #)

1st- House Of Grace- 5.5 (2nd highest #)
2nd- Smart Seattle- 7 (Highest #)
3rd- Haather- 5 (3rd highest #)

October 15; Keeneland's JP Morgan Chase Jessamine

2009-10-14T13:26:00.002-04:00

Thursday Race 8: 1 1/16 miles $150,000 2YO Fillies
(Horse; Pre-race System #)

Smart Seattle- 7
House Of Grace- 5.5
Hatheer- 5
Jonmil's Edge- 4.4
Whydah- 3.3
Dreaminofjosephine- 2.7
Oscar de La Thorn- 2.6
Lisa's Kitten- 2.1
Canadian Storm- 1.7
Waynetta- 1.5
Avy Baby- 1.3
Poortown Princess- .7

Sea The Stars: Legendary Status Already, Retires

2009-10-13T15:57:00.003-04:00

Sea The Stars (Cape Cross) was retired on Tuesday October 13, dashing all hopes the Americans had of seeing the Euro star run in the Breeders' Cup Classic.

The 3-year-old, out of the great Urban Sea was a possible for America's richest race after his dominating performance in the $5,828,400 Arc de Triomphe on Oct 4. Had Sea The Stars been entered in the BC Classic on November 7, he would have carried a 26.3 System number in with him. You can compare that to last year's favorite, Curlin (19.4), and eventual winner Raven's Pass (20.4). The 3-year-old's number is the highest System number in recent memory.

Sea The Stars' siblings include the great Galileo, My Typhoon, Black Sam Bellamy and All Too Beautiful.

Last Year's Breeders' Cup Numbers

2009-10-08T08:55:00.002-04:00

Coming into their winning performances on Breeders' Cup day

Juvenile Fillies Turf: Maram- 9.8
Classic: Raven's Pass- 23.4
Turf: Conduit- 16.5
Ladies Classic: Zenyatta- 22
Mile: Goldikova- 20.4
Sprint: Midnight Lute- 18.5
F&M Turf: Forever Together- 19.3
Juvenile: Midsphiman- 15
Juvenile Fillies: Stardom Bound- 13.9
Dirt Mile: Albertus Maximus- 14.3
F&M Sprint: Ventura- 19.5
Juvenile Turf: Donativum- 8.3
Marathon: Muhannak- 11.6
Turf Sprint: Desert Code- 14.9

RESULTS; Indiana Derby October 3

2009-10-07T08:06:00.003-04:00

Hoosier Park; 3-year-old 1 1/16m
(Horse; Pre-race System #)

1st- Misremembered- 12.4 (2nd highest #)
2nd- Giant Oak- 11.8
3rd- Karama- 10
4th- Weslinn- 7.7
5th- Win Willy- 13.7 (Highest #)

Indiana Derby; October 3 Hoosier Park

2009-09-30T19:43:00.002-04:00

Saturday 10/3 Race 11 3-year-olds
(Horse;Pre-race System #)

Win Willy- 13.7
Misremembered- 12.4
Sumo-12.1
Flat Bold-12
Giant Oak-11.8 (cross-entry)
Karama- 10 (cross-entry)
Despite The Odds- 9.6
Fundy-9.5 (cross-entry)
Zion-8.2 (AE)
Weslin- 7.7 (cross-entry)
Hoopoe- 7 (cross-entry)
Petch- 5 (cross-entry)
Hoosier Kingdom- 3.9 (cross-entry)
Quebec City- 3.5 (AE)
Devious Dew- .5 (AE)

Saratoga VOODOO DANCER STAKES

2009-09-01T17:54:00.003-04:00

Friday September 4 1 1/16 miles 3&up f/m
(Horse; Pre-race Number)

Colina Verde- 12.7
My Baby Baby- 12.4
Leamington- 11.1
Indesribable- 11
Belle Allure- 10.8
Savior Bien- 10.6
Final Refrain- 10.5
Remarkable Remy- 8.9
Eissoai-8.3
Follow My Dream- 5.9

RESULTS; Whitney Handicap

2009-08-09T20:10:00.003-04:00

Saturday August 8 Saratoga Race 10
(Horse;Pre-race System #)

1st- Bullsbay- 17.87 (3rd highest #)
2nd- Macho Again- 15
3rd- Commentator- 17.9 (2nd highest #)

Bullsbay ($39.60), just .63 off the field-high horse, was an absolute steal at 19-1. The pace set up brilliantly for the 5-year-old and he ran up to his stellar System number. Smooth Air, the field's high number ran only ok, and I expect him to back at a shorter distance closer to 1 mile.

Saratoga Saturday Whitney Handicap

2009-08-06T19:47:00.002-04:00

Race 10 1 1/8 miles Grade I
(Horse; Pre-race System #)

Smooth Air- 18.5
Commentator- 17.9
Bullsbay- 17.87
Asiatic Boy- 17.7
Dry Martini- 15.25
Macho Again- 15
Tizway- 13.3

RESULTS; Saturday July 25 Belmont

2009-07-26T07:30:00.002-04:00

Coaching Club American Oaks
(Horse; Pre-race System #)

Funny Moon- 12 (3rd Highest #)
Don't Forget Gil- 11.2 (4th Highest #)
Wynning Ride- 9.6
Casanova Move- 12.2 (2nd Highest #)

Funny Moon- $17.20...$8.50...$6.70

Livin Lovin (12.7) had every chance to take home the trophy but could not last the 1 1/4 miles. Alan Garcia did all he could aboard the winner, Funny Moon to prevent her from the Cross Island Parkway and kept her on the main track. Great ride, very nice filly.

Saturday July 25; Belmont CCAO

2009-07-25T14:47:00.002-04:00

Coaching Club American Oaks; 3YO fillies
(Horse; Pre-race System #)

Livin Lovin- 12.7
Casanova Move- 12.2
Funny Moon- 12
Don't Forget Gil- 11.2
Hightap- 9.7
Wynning Ride- 9.6
What A Pear- 7.3
Devotee- 4.8

**ADJUSTMENT** Casanova Move, Funny Moon and Don't Forget Gil had their numbers changed. As of 2:45 PM Saturday.

Saturday July 25; Belmont CCAO

2009-07-24T09:58:00.003-04:00

Coaching Club American Oaks; 3YO fillies
(Horse; Pre-race System #)

Livin Lovin- 12.7
Casanova Move- 12.5
Don't Forget Gil- 11.5
Funny Moon- 10.1
Hightap- 9.7
Wynning Ride- 9.6
What A Pear- 7.3
Devotee- 4.8

RESULTS; Del Mar Oceanside Stakes

2009-07-23T09:20:00.002-04:00

Del Mar Race 8 7/22 1 mile 3-year-olds
(Horse; Pre-race System #)

Afleet Eagle- 10.5 (HIGHEST SYSTEM #)
Mark S the Cooler- 6.5
Rendezvous- 6.7
Her Mozzart- 9 (2ND HIGHEST SYSTEM #)

We were tickled to see Afleet Eagle go off at 6-1 and pay a juicy $14.60. His 10.5 System number towered over the field. With all AE horses scratching, it was apparent Afleet Eagle was the horse to beat, to us at least, maybe not the public.

Meteore (6.8 System number) went off as the betting favorite. He was 6 lengths back of the winner.

Scratches: Position A, Nashoba Express, Dream Now, Rainbow Goose and Gretsky.

7/22 Del Mar Oceanside Stakes

2009-07-21T10:58:00.004-04:00

Three-year-olds 1 mile turf
(Horse; Pre-race System #)

(AE) Position A- 10.6
Afleet Eagle- 10.5
Herr Mozart- 9
Azul Leon- 8.9
Backbackbackgone- 8.4
Flashman's Papers- 8
(AE) Nashoba Express- 7.6
Meteore- 6.8
Rendezvous- 6.7
Lesson in Deceit- 6.6
Gretsky- 6.6
Mark S the Cooler- 6.5
(AE) Dream Now- 6.2
(AE) Rainbow Goose- 5.9

RESULTS; Hollywood Gold Cup Saturday 7/11

2009-07-12T10:37:00.002-04:00

Gold Cup; Hollywood Park Race 8
(Horse; Pre-race System #)

Rail Trip- 15.3 (Fourth Highest #)
Tres Borrachos- 7
Life Is Sweet- 17.3 (Highest #)

Rail Trip got a great ride. Definitely good enough to win this, moved up a ton with the way the race came out. On paper, he was the lone speed, Tres Borrachos' connections acknowledged the lack of speed and improvised. They grabbed second in a race with a crafty strategy.

I thought Garrett Gomez had Life Is Sweet way to far back, running against boys in a slow race. The filly closed nicely but had way to much to do.

July 11; Hollywood Gold Cup

2009-07-10T07:40:00.002-04:00

Hollywood $700,000 Grade I 1 1/4 miles
(Horse;Pre-race System #)

Life Is Sweet- 17.3
Dakota Phone- 16.5
Bullsbay- 15.5
Parading- 15.5
Rail Trip- 15.3
Global Hunter- 15
Song of Navarone- 14.7
Magnum- 14.4
Informed- 14.4
Big Booster- 13.8
Mast Track- 11.8
Autism Awareness- 8.7
Tres Borrachos- 7

RESULTS; July 4 Belmont- The Suburban

2009-07-07T22:10:00.004-04:00

Belmont dirt, 1 1/4 miles 3&up
(Horse; Pre-race System #)

Dry Martini- 13.5 (4th highest #)
Asiatic Boy- 16.1 (2nd highest #)
Rising Moon- 12.9
Finallymadeit- 14.8 (3rd highest #)

Dry Martini ($23.60) was the one to get up as high system number, It's A Bird (18) was washed-up and back peddling. That performance will make you question his drug-questioned past. In New York that stuff doesn't fly. Shaky.

The second, third and fourth high numbers all finished in the top four as the winner earned a high system number and should have jumped off the page at 11-1. Asiatic Boy (16.1) runs to his projected number again but continues on as a bridesmaid. Finallymadeit (14.8) also ran up to his number as he completed the $5,313 superfecta at 34-1.

Belmont Park July 4; The Suburban H.

2009-07-01T15:41:00.003-04:00

Belmont Park 1 1/4 miles
(Horse; Pre-race System #)

It's a Bird- 18
Asiatic Boy- 16.1
Finallymadeit- 14.8
Dry Martini- 13.5
Cool Coal Man- 13.4
Rising Moon- 12.9
Real Merchant- 11.5
Samhoon- 10
Stud Muffin- 10
Ready's Echo- 10

RESULTS; Tall Ships 6/20

2009-06-23T13:02:00.002-04:00

June 20 Presque Isle Downs 3y0s
(horse; pre-race #)

Heart of a King- 8.5 (Highest #)
Mikoshi- 6.9
Colonel Rutledge- 7.8 (Third Highest #)

6/20 Presque Isle Downs

2009-06-19T09:19:00.003-04:00

Race 6: The Tall Ships Stakes
(Horse; Pre-race System #)

Heart of a King- 8.5
He Ain't Right- 8
Colonel Rutledge- 7.8
Mikoshi- 6.9
Appalachian Trail- 3.8
Macho Toro- 2.9

Heart of a King is (8.5), by Lion Heart, is more likely than He Ain't Right (8), by Cuvee, to get the distance of 1 mile and 70 yards. Cuvee's tend to be a little shorter. Colonel Rutledge (7.8) ran gamely against next-out winner Awesome Rhythm last time in the Marine Stakes at Woodbine.

Churchill June 13 Stephen Foster Handicap

2009-06-11T08:59:00.002-04:00

Older Horses 1 1/8 miles
(Horse; Pre-race System #)

Einstein- 16.8
Researcher- 16.1
Arson Squad- 15.5
Bullsbay- 14.5
Asiatic Boy- 14.3
Finallymadeit- 13.2
Macho Again- 11
Alphabet Magic- 7

6/6 Belmont Stakes Results

2009-06-08T21:55:00.003-04:00

1st- Summer Bird (11.8)
2nd- Dunkirk (11)
3rd- Mine That Bird (12.6)

Summer Bird, just .8 off the top number was where the value was at 11-1. Desormeaux rode him perfectly as those up front put in the bigger efforts. Dunkirk ran too well not to win over the speed-favoring track.

Saturday June 6 Belmont Stakes

2009-06-05T12:05:00.001-04:00

Belmont Stakes 1 1/2 miles 3-year-olds
(Horse; Pre-race System #)

Mine That Bird- 12.6
Chocolate Candy- 12.3
Charitable Man- 12
Summer Bird- 11.8
Flying Private- 11.3
Dunkirk- 11
Mr. Hot Stuff- 9.2
Brave Victory- 8
Luv Gov- 7.9
Miner's Escape- 4.4

***ADJUSTED NUMBERS***ORIGINAL POST WAS 6/3....THE NUMBERS WERE ADJUSTED ON FRIDAY 6/5 IN A NEW POSTING. THANK YOU.

In a Triple Crown summary, The System's high # in the Kentucky Derby, Pioneerof the Nile, finished second while the Preakness high #, Rachel Alexandra won.

RESULTS; The Sheepshead Bay

2009-05-24T16:40:00.003-04:00

Saturday Belmont Grade II Older f/m
(Horse; Pre-race System #)

1st- Criticism- 16 (Highest System #)
2nd- Mushka-10.3
3rd- Caprice- 9.2

Saturday: Belmont The Sheepshead Bay

2009-05-20T18:42:00.002-04:00

Grade II $150,000 older fillies & mares
(Horse; System #)

Criticism- 16
Backseat Rhythm- 13
Colina Verde- 10.3
Mushka- 10.3
Caprice- 9.2
Russian Rosie- 7
Venetian Causeway- 6
Shadiyna- 5

RESULTS; Preakness & Black Eyed Susan

2009-05-17T17:06:00.004-04:00

Saturday May 16 Preakness Stakes
(Horse; Pre-race System #)

1st- Rachel Alexandra- 16 (Highest System #)
2nd- Mine That Bird- 12 (4th Highest #)
3rd- Musket Man- 11.7 (5th Highest #)

Friday May 15 Black Eyed Susan
(Horse;Pre-race System #)

1st- Payton d'Oro-5.3 (4th highest)
2nd- Bon Jovi Girl-5.2 (5th highest)
3rd- Casanova Move- 9.3 (Highest System #)

Scratched: Hooh Why (10)

Preakness Stakes Saturday 5/16

2009-05-14T22:51:00.002-04:00

Pimlico; The Preakness- 3YO 1 3/16 miles $1,000,000
(Horse;Pre-race System #)

Rachel Alexandra- 16
Pioneerof the Nile- 14.3
Big Drama- 13.5
Mine That Bird- 12
Musket Man- 11.7
Friesan Fire- 11.7
Papa Clem- 11.4
General Quarters- 11
Take the Points- 10.5
Terrain- 8
Flying Private- 7.5
Luv Guv- 5.2
Tone It Down- 4.9

Friday; Pimlico Black Eyed Susan

2009-05-11T13:04:00.007-04:00

Race 12 Pimlico Black Eyed Susan GII
(Horse; Pre-race #)

Hooh Why- 10

Casanova Move- 9.3

Don't Forget Gil- 6.1

Renda- 6

Payton d'Oro- 5.3

Bon Jovi Girl- 5.2

Combinate- 5

Oro Blanco- 4.8

Stage Trick- 3.8

Stone Legacy- 3.3

We'll see how Hooh Why (10) handles the dirt, and stalking pressure from a quality filly like Casanova Move (9.3).

RESULTS; Peter Pan Stakes

2009-05-10T09:59:00.003-04:00

May 9 Peter Pan 3Y0's
(Horse; Pre-race #)

1st- Charitable Man- 8.4 (2nd HIGHEST #)
2nd- Imperial Council- 7.1 (3rd Highest #)
3rd- Brave Victory- 5
4th- Hello Broadway- 8.8 (HIGHEST #)

MAY 9 PETER PAN STAKES

2009-05-08T20:21:00.002-04:00

Saturday Race 9 Belmont Park Peter Pan Stakes
(Horse: Pre-race System #)

Hello Broadway- 8.8
Charitable Man- 8.4
Imperial Council- 7.1
Scorewithcater- 6.3
Al Khali- 5.9
Stately Character- 5.8
Brave Victory- 5

RESULTS; Derby & Oaks

2009-05-02T22:29:00.005-04:00

Kentucky Derby 3YO
(Horse; Pre-race System #)

1st- Mine That Bird- 6.5
2nd- Pioneerof the Nile- 15.5 (HIGHEST SYSTEM #)
3rd- Musket Man- 10.8
4th- Papa Clem- 10

Scratched: I Want Revenge (15.5)

Kentucky Oaks 3YOF
(Horse; Pre-race System #)

1st- Rachel Alexandra- 16.3 (HIGHEST SYSTEM #)
2nd- Stone Legacy- 3.5
3rd- Flying Spur- 8 (3rd Highest)

Scratched: Justwhistledixie (11.4)

KENTUCKY DERBY 5/2 $2,000,000

2009-04-30T07:48:00.008-04:00

Race 11 Churchill KY Derby 1 1/4 miles
(Horse; Pre-race System #....early odds)

I Want Revenge- 15.5
Pioneerof the Nile- 15.5
Desert Party- 15
Dunkirk- 14.3
West Side Bernie- 12.8
Chocolate Candy- 12.5
Friesan Fire- 12.1
General Quarters- 11.4
Regal Ransom- 11
Musket Man- 10.8
Summer Bird- 10.8
Papa Clem- 10
Hold Me Back- 10
Mr. Hot Stuff- 9.4
Flying Private- 7.5
Nowhere to Hide- 7.4
Advice- 6.6
Mine that Bird- 6.5
Join in the Dance- 6
Atomic Rain- 5.2

I Want Revenge (15.5) has taken it to another level on the dirt. Pioneerof the Nile (15.5) was twice better than 'Revenge' over the California synthetic surfaces. Then Revenge went east and established himself as the Derby favorite. He is a much better horse on Saturday's dirt surface. If Pioneerof the Nile does like his rival, they may duke it out. Interesting that Pioneer's connections (Mott & Baffert are both no-joke) have never tried him on dirt even when he was based on the east coast with Mott. I'll take I Want Revenge because I've seen him dominate on dirt. Pioneer has trained brilliantly over Churchill's dirt.

Desert Party (15) has grown into his $2,100,000 purchase price when he went to Dubai this winter. He began to show even more when he routed. If he runs back to his North American 2008 form (doubtful), he'll be nowhere close. If he runs like he did in the desert, he's dangerous.

If Dunkirk (14.3) catches Quality Road in the March 28 Florida Derby, I'd estimate a number around 16.5. He had to do a lot that day, but he did have the lead in the stretch, until Quality Road fought back and Dunkirk threw it in. Either way, that was only his third race, and they've ALL BEEN impressive. Awfully dangerous. Preakness?

West Side Bernie (12.8) was 1 1/2 lengths behind I Want Revenge in the Wood Memorial, and was 4-wide that day. However, 'Revenge' had much more trouble. His last three dirt races have been very respectable. Tremendous value in triples & superfectas.

I respect Joel Rosario and Russel Baze, but Mike Smith is as big of a big-time rider as it gets. He gets the call on Chocolate Candy (12.5), and may be the answer to his mount's wide journey troubles. If he's three wide (instead of five wide) in the Santa Anita Derby, maybe he beats tied-for-field-high Pioneerof the Nile that day. Same with December's Cash Call Futurity, closed like a car door that day while four wide. Beaten only by, you guessed it, Pioneer and I Want Revenge. In February I called Cali's 3-year-olds soft. Dead wrong.

Friesan Fire (12.1) has a huge shot. LOVED his Louisiana Derby. If he runs that way on Saturday he could win this. Plus Larry Jones rarely does any wrong, so I ignore the fact that no horse has won of this type of rest in however long its been.. Friesan Fire is your horse? You're live.

Pioneerof the Nile (outside) noses out I Want Revenge
(inside) at Hollywood Park in December. I Want Revenge
has a huge chance to get some on Saturday.

***CASUAL RACING FAN*** BECAUSE THERE ARE NO SERIOUS OUTLIERS, LOOK FOR SOME VALUE. THIS IS THE KENTUCKY DERBY, THERE ARE 20 STARTERS. TRAFFIC (AMONG MANY OTHER THINGS) IS ANNUALLY A HUGE PROBLEM IN THIS RACE.

CHURCHILL FRIDAY 5/1 Kentucky Oaks

2009-04-29T09:13:00.007-04:00

Friday Race 11 1 $500,000 G1 KY Oaks
(Horse; Pre-race System #)

Rachel Alexandra- 16.3
Justwhistledixie- 11.4
Be Fair- 8.1
Flying Spur-8
Nan- 7.5
Gabby's Golden Girl- 7.5
Tweeter- 3.5
Stone Legacy- 3.5

Rachel Alexandra (Medaglia d'Oro) has won four in

a row. She faces the best east 3YOF, Justwhistledixie

on Friday.

Last 10 Derby Winner's System Numbers

2009-04-28T07:28:00.010-04:00

Over the last ten seasons there has been a trend among the Kentucky Derby champions. All of them had an 11 rating or higher coming into the Derby.

2008: Big Brown-15.3 (field-high)

2007: Street Sense-16.5 (high)

2006: Barbaro-14.1 (high)

2005: Giacomo-12.5

2004: Smarty Jones-16.6 (high)

2003: Funny Cide-13.9

2002: War Emblem-11.6

2001: Monarchos-12.8 (high)

2000: Fusaichi Pegasus-15.3 (high)

1999: Charismatic-11

Quality Road Out...Don't Forget About Him.

2009-04-27T17:54:00.004-04:00

Quality Road's early Kentucky Derby number was a 17. That is due to change once the field is announced but wouldn't have strayed much from that number. For an early 3-year-old that is legitimate.

Compare it to the past Derby winners like Big Brown and Street Sense.

In 2008, Big Brown came into the Derby as a field-high 15.3.

2007's killer threesome of Street Sense (16.5 field-high), Curlin (15.8) and Hard Spun (13) all put on spectacular campaigns.

Quality Road's hoof issues are beginning to seem chronic. If they DO NOT derail him further, he is one to look out for. If they do, he is one we can put in the 'got away from us' category.

RESULTS: Keeneland Elkhorn

2009-04-26T20:53:00.003-04:00

Friday's Fifth Third Elkhorn
(Horse; Pre-race System #)

1st- Spice Route- 16 (HIGHEST RATING)
2nd- Musketier- 10.3
3rd- Brass Hat- 12

Spice Route (16) ran like a horse with a 16 number, beating a solid field by 2-lengths. Muketier (10.3) ran big to complete the Roger Attfield exacta. The price on the winner($10.20) was absolutely lovely, given his edge on The System numbers. Spice Route is a very, very consistent horse who also drew field high numbers in his previous two starts.

Friday 4/24 @ Keeneland: The Fifth Third Elkhorn

2009-04-21T17:12:00.004-04:00

Race 9 Grade II $200,000 1 1/2 miles turf
(Horse; Pre-race System #)

Spice Route- 16
Champs Elysees- 14.5
Buddy's Humor- 14.5
Better Talk Now- 13.7
Quasicobra-12.5
Brass Hat- 12
Admiral's Cruise-12
Musketier- 10.3
(AE) Sudden War- 8.3
Transduction Gold- 8
(AE) Sir Dave- 8
Always First- 8
Sir Whimsey- 5.4
Embossed- 2.7

Roger Attfield's Spice Route (16) wins in the consistency category. Classy veterans like Champs Elysees (14.5) and Better Talk Now (13.7) have been very tough at times and both like to have something to run at. However, there isn't much speed here which means Buddy's Humor (14.5) can drop the anchor on them. Can he keep up for 12-furlongs? We'll see.

Edgar Prado and agent choose Attfield's Musketier (10.3) over field-high Spice Route (16). Interesting. Musketier has been consistent, but a level below these especially his stablemate.

Quasicobra (12.5) is on the rise. Expect the crafty Julien Leparoux to improvise on the expected slow pace.

RESULTS @ KEENELAND; Jenny Wiley & Lexington

2009-04-19T02:17:00.005-04:00

Jenny Wiley older f/m turf
(Horse; Pre-race #)

1st- Forever Together- 19 (Highest #)
2nd- Rutherienne- 13.7 (3rd highest #)
3rd- Kiss With A Twist- 11.2 (4th Highest #)

Scratch: Visit (15.5) & Ballymore Lady (9.5)

Coolmore Lexington 3YO colts
(Horse; Pre-race #)

1st- Advice- 5.4
2nd- Conservative- 4.5
3rd- Square Eddie- 12 (Highest #)

Scratch: Hull (9)

Saturday 4/18 Keeneland: Coolmore Lexington

2009-04-17T21:31:00.005-04:00

Race 9 $300,000 G II 1 1/8 miles
(Horse; Pre-race #)

Square Eddie- 12
Hull-9
Omniscient-8.2
Masala- 8
Jeranimo- 6.9
Parade Clown- 6.5
El Crespo- 6
Advice- 5.4
Pitched Perfectly- 4.9
Brave Victory- 4.7
Conservative- 4.5
His Greatness- 2.3

Field-high Square Eddie (12) looks to overcome a 3-month layoff in this mediocre rendition of the Coolmore Lexington. He has beaten better horses than these before. The Pamplemousse and Midshipman are the only horses in N.A to have beaten him. Both were serious Derby threats before their injuries.

The System's Early Kentucky Derby & Oaks Top 5

2009-04-13T21:13:00.003-04:00

May 2 Derby

1. I Want Revenge
2. Quality Road
3. Friesan Fire
4. Pioneerof the Nile
5. Dunkirk

May 1 Oaks

1. Rachel Alexandra
2. Justwhistledixie
3. Stardom Bound
4. Dream Play
5. Just Jenda

Be on the look out for Complementary System Numbers for both the Derby & the Oaks, a few days prior to the first weekend in May.

Keeneland April 11 Jenny Wiley 1 1/16m

2009-04-10T16:01:00.006-04:00

Race 8 Grade II 8.5 furlongs turf
(Horse;Pre-race #)

Forever Together- 19
Visit- 15.5
Backseat Rhythm- 14.6
Rutherienne- 13.7
Kiss With A Twist- 11.2
I Lost My Choo- 10
Lady Carlock- 9.8
Ballymore Lady- 9.5
Rustic Flame- 6.7

This race screams Keeneland Spring. Definitely a cool one. The entire field will pray for a soft turf course in order to beat the favorite Forever Together (19). The Breeders' Cup winner has not lost since September when she ran into Woodbine's yielding turf in the Canadian. Sheppard won Thursday's Madison with a similar layoff.

Visit (15.5) is still looking for her break-out stateside race. As long as Frankel keeps her on the grass, it will come.

Backseat Rhythm (14.6) makes her first start with the McLaughlin barn- they seem to get all the nice ones. She is a grade I winner but has never beaten a mare like Sheppard's.

SHE'S BACK: Forever Together looks to return
to her super 2008 form.

RESULTS: Keeneland: Vinery Madison (G1)

2009-04-09T18:36:00.004-04:00

Grade I $300,000 7 furlongs older f&m
(Horse;Pre-race System #)

1st- Informed Decision (13.3) (2nd Highest #)
2nd- Ventura (16) (Highest #)
3rd- Bear Now (6.7)

The top two finishers were and are so much better than the rest of this group. They're numbers lived up to that in an exciting finish Thursday.

Ventura (16) ran a long trip, Gomez had her tucked behind then swung out 5-wide to take a brief about 100 yards from the wire. John Velazquez on Informed Decision (13.3) straight up out-rode Gomez here. Velazquez saved ground and she dug gamely as her eyes met Ventura's.

System exacta($14.20) players were rewarded when the 5/2 shot necked out the 2/5 fave.

Keeneland Friday April 10 Makers Mark Mile

2009-04-08T18:29:00.002-04:00

Keeneland Race 9: Grade I $300,000 1 mile turf
(Horse; Pre-race System #)

Just As Well: 10.3
Thorn Song: 10.1
Twilight Meteor: 9.8
Mr. Sidney: 8.6
Passager: 8.5
Fluke: 8
House Of Silver: 6.3

Good luck in this crap-shoot. Just As Well (10.3) looks like he is satisfied with being close, but eeks out the top # over Thorn Song (10.1). The latter looks to regain his Autumn form, likes Keeneland. Twilight Meteor (9.8) beat this field's high number down in Gulfstream last time. Bobby Frankel's Fluke (8) has improved in two U.S starts.

Thursday April 9 Keeneland: Vinery Madison (G1) older f&m

2009-04-06T15:40:00.011-04:00

Vinery Madison 7 furlongs $300,000
(Horse; Pre-Race System #)

Ventura- 16
Informed Decision- 13.3
Bsharpsonata- 8.6
Proud Heiress- 8.2
Bear Now- 6.7
Dubai Majesty- 6.5
Authenticat- 6.2

Ventura (16) returns to her best distance (3-for-3, including a BC win) as she looks for a repeat win in the Vinery Madison. She comes back to Keeneland and immediately works a 4-furlong bullet. Very tough.

Informed Decision (13.3) makes her first start since winning the Raven Run here in the Fall. Trainer Sheppard guaranteed to break out soon.

RESULTS Santa Anita Derby & Wood Memorial

2009-04-05T11:43:00.003-04:00

Santa Anita Derby $750,000
(Horse;Pre-race System #)

1st- Pioneerof the Nile- 11.5 (HIGHEST rating)
2nd- Chocolate Candy- 9 (2nd Highest rating)
3rd- Mr. Hot Stuff- 6.5

SCRATCHED: The Pamplemousse- 10; Cape Truth- 7.5; Z Day- 4.9
-Scratch of The Pamplemousse moves Chocolate Candy into second highest spot.

Wood Memorial $750,000
(Horse; Pre-race System #)

1st- I Want Revenge- 13 (HIGHEST rating)
2nd- West Side Bernie- 10.3 (2nd Highest rating)
3rd- Just A Coincidence- 4.9

I Want Revenge (Highest 3-year-old # on Saturday) puts on the performance of the day.

Santa Anita Derby & Wood Memorial

2009-04-02T20:32:00.007-04:00

Race 6 Santa Anita Derby $750,000 1 1/8 miles
(Horse; System #)

Pioneerof the Nile- 11.5
The Pamplemousse- 10
Chocolate Candy- 9
Gallant Son- 8.3
Take The Points- 8.3
Came Truth- 7.5
Feisty Suances- 7
Mr. Hot Stuff- 6.6
Unbridled Roman- 5.9
Z Day- 4.9

Race 9 Wood Memorial $750,000 1 1/8 miles
(Horse; System #)

I Want Revenge- 13
West Side Bernie- 10.3
Imperial Council- 9
Lime Rickey- 7.1
Atomic Rain- 5
Lord Justice- 5
Just A Coincidence- 4.9
Cellar Dweller- 2.7

Is I Want Revenge (13) for real or was his
Gotham just a freak performance? System #
says for real.

RESULTS Gulfstream March 28

2009-03-29T20:45:00.002-04:00

Florida Derby $750,000 Grade I
(Official Order of finish; Pre-race #)

1st Quality Road (11.5-Highest Rating)
2nd Dunkirk (9.6- Second Highest Rating)
3rd Theregoesjojo (7.9- Third Highest Rating)

System hits the straight triple as Quality Road (Elusive Quality) held off the chugging-Dunkirk (Unbridled's Song). Sent off as the second-choice, Quality Road was a steal, at a poultry 6-5, if you're playing System numbers being that he was 1.9 points higher than the second-high, Dunkirk.

With the early scratch of fourth-highest number Danger to Society, Stately Character moves up and completes the straight superfecta ($72.20) for The System.

Swale Stakes $150,000 Grade II
(Official Order of Finish; Pre-race #)

1st- This Ones for Phil (7.5- Third Highest Rating)
2nd- Big Drama (8.7- Highest Rating)
3rd- Custom for Carlos (8- Second Highest Rating)

System-high Big Drama (Montbrook) crossed the wire first and in a track record time of 1:20.88. However, two bumps in mid-stretch were considered severe enough to take the initial winner down.

Although this really screwed with straight Pick 3's and doubles, the boxed System triple ($51.60) was still live. Although the favorite moving up didn't help the payout.

Saturday March 28: Florida Derby & Swale

2009-03-26T21:54:00.003-04:00

Race 9 The Swale Stakes $150,000
(Horse; Pre-race System #)

Big Drama- 8.7
Custom for Carlos- 8
This Ones For Phil- 7.5
B Z Warrior- 6.3
Brave Victory- 4
Sabi Sabi- 3

Custom for Carlos (8) has ran beautifully in two career starts. The System has him rated slightly second behind the layoff shooter, Big Drama (8.7). This Ones for Phil (7.5) tries to regroup after setting the pace and fading in the FOY.

Race 10 Florida Derby $750,000
(Horse; Pre-Race System #)

Quality Road- 11.5
Dunkirk- 9.6
Theregoesjojo- 7.9
Danger to Society- 5.2
Stately Character- 4.6
Casey's On Call- 4
Europe- 3.5
Toby the Coal Man- 2.8
Sincero- 2.4

Can't wait to see how this plays out. Pletcher sending in a $2.7 million rabbit? What does that say about his hopes for Dunkirk (9.6)? Quality Road (11.5) was dynamite in the FOY. Can he repeat with an added furlong and turn? His number says so. Theregoesjojo (7.9) ran a solid second in the FOY behind Quality Road.

SATURDAY 3/14 Fair Grounds Oaks & Louisiana Derby

2009-03-11T21:02:00.008-04:00

Race 6 Fair Grounds Oaks
(Horse; Pre-race System #)

Rachel Alexandra- 11.1
Four Gifts- 8.2
African Skies-6
War Tigress- 4
Flying Spur- 3.8
Our Dahlia- 3.4

Race 9 Louisiana Derby
(Horse; Pre-race System #)

Flying Pegasus- 10.1
Friesian Fire- 9
Patena- 8
Terrain- 7.9
Papa Clem- 7.7 (synthetic)
Nowhere to Hide- 6.9
Free Country- 5.8
Giant Oak- 5.8
Uno Mas- 5.3
Soul Warrior- 3

Friesian Fire (9 system-rating) is the morning-
line favorite in Saturday's Louisiana Derby.

RESULTS; Santa Anita Saturday March 7

2009-03-07T20:19:00.008-05:00

Santa Anita Oaks
(Horse; Pre-race System #)

1ST- Stardom Bound (13.1) (1st Highest Rating)
2ND- Third Dawn (2.5)
3RD- Hooh Why (7.4) (2nd Highest Rating)
4TH- Nan (5.9) (4th Highest Rating)

Stardom Bound had to work extremely hard for her fifth consecutive GI win. The Tapit 3-year-old swung 6-wide to catch the very game Third Dawn and Hooh Why. The latter (second highest rating) was nosed for the place spot, just a nose behind the winner. Big talking connections may have to evaluate future plans for their superior filly.

Frank Kilroe mile
(Horse; Pre-race #)

1ST- Gio Ponti (14.6) (3rd Highest Rating)
2ND- Ventura (18.7) (1st Highest Rating)
3RD- Dixie Chatter (8.9)
4TH- Global Hunter (11.6) (4th Highest Rating)

Gio Ponti was back on his surface and proved to be slightly better than super-filly Ventura on Saturday. The latter went off as the favorite and gave the eventual winner a break in mid-stretch when she dazed off for a step to allow Gio Ponti to pass her.

Scratch: Mast Track and Monterray Jazz.

Santa Anita Handicap
(Horse; Pre-race #)

1ST- Einstein (16) (1st highest rating)
2ND- Champs Elysses (14.3) (4th highest rating)
3RD- Matto Mondo (11)
4TH- Monba (8.7)

Field high Einstein was placed perfectly throughout by the cool Julien Leparoux. It was never really in doubt for the 7-year-old. Champs Elysses, virtually ignored, closed nicely to grab second. Court Vision (2nd highest) left himself too much to do and closed for fifth.

Scratch: Colonel John

Saturday March 7 Santa Anita: SA Oaks, SA Handicap & Kilroe Mile H.

2009-03-06T14:31:00.004-05:00

Santa Anita Oaks Race 7 300k Grade I 1 1/16m
(Horse; Pre-race #)

Stardom Bound- 13.1
Hooh Why- 7.4
Miss Silver Brook- 7
Beltene- 7
Nan- 5.9
Burg Burg- 5.2
Will O Way- 4.5
Third Down-2.5
Acronym- 2.5
Stormy Slew- 2.5

Do what you can to beat the field-high Stardom Bound (13.1).

Frank Kilroe Mile Race 9 $300k 1mile turf
(Horse; Pre-race #)

Ventura- 18.7
Artiste Royal- 16.5
Mast Track- 15.8
Gio Ponti- 14.6
Global Hunter- 11.6
Victory Pete- 10.8
Wise River- 9.8
Dixie Chatter- 8.9
Hewitts- 8.5
Monterray Jazz- 7.6
Becrux- 6.8
Mr. Napper Tandy- 4.7

Ventura tackles the boys and earns a field, and day high rating of 18.7. Her inside post should not be too much of a problem given her running style. Artiste Royal (16.5) has showed he is better suited for longer distance, but is still dangerous. One of two stakes races that should be very competitive.

Santa Anita Handicap Race 10 $1,000,000 1 1/4m
(Horse; Pre-race #)

Einstein-16
Court Vision- 15.5
Cowboy Cal- 15.3
Champs Elysses- 14.3
Colonel John- 13.4
Zambezi Sun- 11.3
Matto Mondo- 11
Dansant-10
Stream Cat- 9.7
Monba- 8.7
Blue Exit- 8.3
Magnum- 7
Cause- 5.4
Heroi Do Bafra- 4.8

Just 5 system numbers seperate the first 7 horses in this take-your-pick rendition of the 'Cap. Einstein (an unimpressive second in a quiet running of the Donn) leads the pack with a 16. DO NOT ignore how close these numbers are.

Good Luck with the rest of the Pick 6 and the Pick 4.

RESULTS Gulfstream 2/28

2009-03-01T14:45:00.003-05:00

Canadian Turf
(System # Range =3-12)

1st- Twilight Meteor- 9.7 (4th Highest)
2nd- Buddy's Humor- 9.9 (3rd Highest)
3rd- Buffalo Man- 8
4th- Vanquisher- 7.2

Fountain Of Youth
(System # Range= 3.1-11)

1st- Quality Road- 7.2
2nd- Theregoesjojo- 5.8
3rd- Beethoven- 8.5 (2nd Highest)
4th- Capt. Candyman Can- 11 (Highest)

Fountain of Youth & Canadian Turf

2009-02-26T18:01:00.006-05:00

Fountain Of Youth
(Horse; Pre-race System #)

Capt. Candyman Can- 11
Beethoven- 8.5
This Ones For Phil- 7.5
Quality Road- 7.2
Notonthesamepage- 6.6
Break Water Edison- 6.1
Theregoesjojo- 5.8
Taqarub- 5
Rocketing Returns- 5.3
Jack Spratt- 4.5
Bee Cee Cee- 3.1

Tons of speed up front. A lot of questions will be answered a minute and a half after they open the gates on Saturday.
Can speed-freak Notonthesamepage (6.6) carry? Doubtful.
Is This Ones For Phil (7.5) for real or did he freak on Millions day? Your guess is as good as mine.
Is Beethoven (8.5) better suited for one turn?
Is Capt. Candyman Can (11) for real? I think so, the Wilkes gelding has been very consistent since tearing up Saratoga in his debut.

Canadian Turf
(Horse; Pre-race System #)

Delightful Kiss- 12
Just As Well- 10.8
Buddy's Humor- 9.9
Twilight Meteor- 9.7
Buffalo Man- 8
Vanquisher- 7.2
Sporting Act- 7
Passager- 7
Bujagali- 6.8
Rogue Victory- 4.5
Hey Byrn- 3

Delightful Kiss (12) tries the turf...before Dubai? Interesting option for the Hal's Hope impressive winner. I'll take my chances with the ever-improving Just As Well (10.8) for turf wizard Sheppard. Buddy's Humor (9.9) could get loose on the lead if Jose Vezcano can guide him from the outside slot.

A lot of options in here, should get some nice prices, monitor the board.

Gulfstream Grade II Mac Diarmida Stakes

2009-02-19T19:04:00.003-05:00

Saturday February 21 4yo & up 1 3/8 miles turf 150k
(Horse; Pre-race System Number)

Spice Route- 11.4
Baltimore Bob- 7.8
Finallymadeit- 7.2
Presious Passion- 7
Summer Patriot- 6.6
Always First- 6.2
Mr. Sidney- 4.2
Quasicobra- 4
Slambino- 3.6
Silver Mountain- 1.5
Imawildandcrazyguy- 1

RESULTS G I Santa Maria @ Santa Anita

2009-02-15T11:36:00.003-05:00

RESULTS: Saturday 2/14 Race 9 300k 1 1/16 miles pro-ride
(Horse; Pre-Race System Number)

Santa Teresita- 6.5 ($28.80)
(DH)Marzelline- 8
(DH)Model- 7.5
Leah's Secret- 9.2
Roshani- 6.5
Visit- 11
Briecat- 6.5
Mistical Plan- 2.5

Scratched: Tizfiz-6, Country Star-7, Bsharpsonata-7.6, Island Hop-3

Saturday @ Santa Anita: The Santa Maria Handicap Grade I 300k

2009-02-14T12:06:00.002-05:00

Race 9 Santa Maria H. Grade 1 Post time: 4:38 pacific time

Visit- 11
Leah's Secret- 9.2
Marzelline- 8
Bsharpsonata- 7.6
Model- 7.5
Country Star- 7
Roshani- 6.5
Briecat- 6.5
Santa Teresita- 6.5
Tizfiz- 6
Island Hop- 3
Mistical Plan- 2.5

RESULTS; Santa Anita Feb 11 La Zanara Handicap

2009-02-11T19:24:00.002-05:00

Wednesday Race 7 Results
(Horse; Pre-race Rating)

1st- Caprice- 8.9 (2nd Highest Rating) ($8.20)
2nd- Restless Soul- 10.2 (1st Highest Rating)
3rd- Brushed Gold- 8.1 (3rd Highest Rating)

Feb 11 Santa Anita La Zanara Handicap

2009-02-09T20:48:00.003-05:00

Wednesday Race 7 1 1/2 turf 70k
(Horse; Pre Race System Rating)

Restless Soul- 10.2
Caprice- 8.9
Brushed Gold- 8.1
Exquiste- 8
Forest Melody- 6.5
Powerofvoodoo- 6
Lickety Lemon- 5.4

RESULTS Gulfstream: Donn H, Suwannee River & Turf Handicap

2009-02-02T17:01:00.002-05:00

Saturday The Donn Handicap Grade I
(Horse; Pre-race System rating)

Albertus Maximus- 9.3 (2nd highest rating)
Finallymadeit- 6.1
Einstein- 10.5 (1st highest rating)

Sunday Suwannee River Handicap Grade III
(Horse; Pre-race System rating)

Lady Carlock- 8 (T-3rd highest rating)
Mushka- 2.3
Drop A Line- 6

Sunday Turf Handicap Grade I
(Horse; Pre-race System rating

Kip Deville- 9.5 (1st highest rating)
Just As Well- 5.5
Court Vision- 7.2 (3rd highest rating)

Weekend Graded Stakes @ Gulfstream

2009-01-30T23:17:00.003-05:00

Saturday Donn Handicap 1 1/8 miles dirt Grade I 500k
(Horse; Pre-race System Rating)

Einstein- 10.5
Albertus Maximus- 9.3
Bullsbay- 9
Arson Squad- 8.4
AP Arrow- 6.5
Anak Nakal- 6.3
Finallymadeit- 6.1
Great Hunter- 5.8
Sir Whimsey- 5.5
On Board Again- 5.5

Sunday Gulfstream Turf Handicap Grade I 300k
(Horse; Pre-race System Rating)

Kip Deville- 9.5
Red Rocks- 7.3
Court Vision- 7.2
Uigur- 7
Nergal- 7
Kiss The Kid- 6.5
Just As Well- 5
Pick Six- 5
Sligovitz- 4
Summer Patriot- 3.6

Sunday Suwannee River Grade III Turf 125k
(Horse; Pre-race System Rating)

Callwood Dancer- 12
Waquiot's Love- 11
Ballymore Lady- 8
Long Approach- 8
Lady Carlock- 8
Tejida- 6.5
Flibberjibit- 6.5
Drop A Line- 6
The Niagra Queen- 3.5
Mushka- 2.3

RESULTS Jan 24 Santa Anita & Gulfstream Sunshine Millions

2009-01-25T15:03:00.006-05:00

Gulfstream Race 8 F&M Turf 1 1/8 miles
(Horse; Pre-race System Rating)

Wild Promises (12.5) *Highest System Rating* ($3.40)
Elusive Lady (5)
Snow Cone (3)
Julia Tuttle (3)

Wild Promises (12.5) came into the race 5.5 points higher than her next rival, she played with this field and won easily.

Santa Anita Race 6 Turf 1 1/8 miles
(Horse; Pre-race System Rating)

Soldier's Dancer (10) *Highest System Rating* ($4.80)
Presious Passion (7.5)
Unusual Suspect (6)
Victory Pete (6)

Soldier's Dancer lost to Spice Route by a nose at Calder last time and the latter is a nice horse. When I determined Soldier's Dancer's field high rating (10) I was hoping for some value in a crowded field ($4.80). Presious Passion also won at Calder (wire-to-wire) and came back with a real nice effort Saturday.

Sunshine Millions Turf and F&M Turf

2009-01-22T15:08:00.003-05:00

Gulfstream Race 8 F&M Turf 500k
(Horse; Pre-race System Rating)

Wild Promises- 12.5
Zip Trick- 7
Bel Air Sizzle- 5
Elusive Lady- 5
Peach Flamble- 3.5
Julia Tuttle- 3.3
Snow Cone- 3
Zee Zee- 2.5

Santa Anita Race 6 Turf 500k
(Horse; Pre-race System Rating)

Soldier's Dancer- 10
Lucky J.H- 9.7
Icy Atlantic- 9
Liberian Freighter- 8.5
Jacks Wild- 8
Mr. Chairman- 8
Screen to Screen- 8
Presious Passion- 7.5
Epic Power- 7.5
Seminole Native- 7
Swift Winds- 6.5
Unusual Suspect- 6
Victory Pete- 6
Pistol Pete Afleet- 3.5

RESULTS Gulfstream Weekend Turf Stakes

2009-01-18T17:48:00.008-05:00

The Dania Beach
(Range: 3.7-8.8)

Jack Spratt - (6.3) ($30.80)
Lime Rickey- (6)
Beacon Hill Road- (5)
Adari- (7.2)

Sweetest Chant Stakes
(Range: 1.9-7.5)

Oilgonewile- (3.3) ($46.60)
Weekend Strike- (4.3)
Exe- (7)
Just Livin A Dream- (4.5)

Summary

Jack Spratt wasn't much of a surprise (just 2.5 off the high rating), but paid brilliantly ($30.80). Kopitar's (8.8) fade in mid-stretch was the surprise.

I'm going to call this race 'The Humbler'. Sunday's Sweetest Chant was stolen when Oilgonewile (3.3) wired the group of fillies as the rest of them dueled for second.

Jan 18 Gulfstream: Sweetest Chant Stakes

2009-01-17T21:18:00.002-05:00

Sunday Race 8: Fillies 3-year-old 100k 1 mile turf
(Horse;Pre-race System Rating)

Banker's Choice- 7.5
C Karma- 7
Saar Treaty- 7
Exe- 7
Ameribelle- 5.5
Sweetsaintomine- 5.3
Just Livin A Dream- 4.5
Sugar Mom- 4.5
Weekend Strike- 4.3
Oilgonewile- 3.3
Hopeful Image- 1.9

Banker's Choice (6.5) is out of Berry Blessed, who is a half sister to champion juvenile Vindication. Seems to love the distance.

C Karma (6) returns to a surface she see seems to be more comfortable over.

Saar Treaty (6) has improved drastically since stretching out two turns.

Weekend Strike (3.3) is out of Weekend Storm, who is a half sister to A.P Indy and a full sister to Summer Squall. This filly is also a half to Court Vision, who has emerged as a very nice turfer.

Saturday Jan 17; Dania Beach Stakes 1 mile turf 3-year-olds

2009-01-15T14:46:00.008-05:00

The Dania Beach Stakes 100k Race 8
(Horse;Pre-race System Rating)

Kopitar- 8.8
Adari- 7.2
Cape Royal- 6.5
Jack Spratt- 6.3
Rockin' Joe- 6.3
Duke Of Homberg- 6.1
Lime Rickey- 6
Smart Shot- 5.5
Beacon Hill Road- 5
Livingston Street- 5
Sweetlandofliberty- 4.5
Show Me The Cash- 4.3
Big Al Cordes- 3.7

Kopitar (8.8) wowed me in the Keeneland Paddock before his debut on the Polytrack. He won professionally 15 minutes later paying $29.00.

Kopitar is by Military out of a Quest For Fame (over $1.8 million in earnings, won 1990 Epsom Derby) unraced mare named Vindicate. Vindicate's brother is Frankly Perfect, who earned over $1.2 million on the grass. The bred-for-grass gelding looks to make it a perfect 3-for-3 on Saturday in his first stakes try.

RESULTS; Gulfstream Weekend Stakes The Ft. Lauderdale & The Marshua’s River

2009-01-11T19:17:00.003-05:00

Jan 10 Saturday Ft. Lauderdale
(Horse; Pre-race System Rating) (Field Range: 3 - 8.5)

Kiss the Kid- 8.5 ($24.60) *Highest System Rating*
Society’s Chairman- 5.5
A.P Magic- 3
Museeb- 6

With the scratch of Silver Tree, Kiss the Kid (8.5) moved into the highest rating spot with Buffalo Man. The latter was never involved but the winner rewarded System backers with a lovely $24.60.

Jan 11 Sunday Marshua’s River
(Horse; Pre-race System Rating) (Field Range: 3 - 8.5 )

Waquiot’s Love- 8 ($19.60)
Sea Chanter- 3
Ginger Brew- 6.5
Ballymore Lady- 5

Waquiot’s Love (8) trailed Jeux de Danse ((8.5); finished 5th) by just a half a point for the highest rating coming into the race. The big grey 6-year-old ran to her potential on Sunday to win the Marshua’s River, paying $19.60. Those handicapping this weekend’s stakes via the System ran into some really nice value.

Gulfstream Jan 10 The Ft. Lauderdale & Jan 11 The Marshua's River

2009-01-10T13:20:00.001-05:00

Saturday Race 9: 1 1/16 miles turf $100,000
(Horse: Pre-race System Rating)

Silver Tree- 9
Buffalo Man- 8.5
Kiss The Kid- 8.5
Buddy's Humor- 8
Mambo Meister- 7.5
Fair Weather Stan- 6
Pick Six- 6
Museeb- 6
Society's Chairman- 5.5
Wesley- 4
A.P Magic- 3
Cherokee Triangle- 3

Sunday Race 9: 1 1/16 miles turf $100,000 fillies & mares
(Horse: Pre-race System Rating)

Jeux de Danse- 8.5
Waquoit's Love- 8
Remarkable Remy- 6.7
Ginger Brew- 6.5
American Border- 5
Beau Dare- 5
Ballymore Lady- 5
Sousaphone- 5
Mushka- 4.7
Audacious Chloe- 4.5
Alpha Charmer- 4
Cozzi Capital- 4
Street Sounds- 4
Sea Chanter- 3

RESULTS: Jan 9 Gulfstream Race 8

2009-01-09T18:26:00.003-05:00

Results
(Horse: Pre-race System Rating)

Tejida- 8 ($18.20)
Ashley River- 6
Long Approach- 10
Lady On Holiday- 6
Sway- 7
Avie's Tale- 4
Armonk- 1.7
Star Dixie- 4.5
Jazz Jam- 5
Cape Cod Lady- 1
Mousse Au Chocolat- 8
Silversider- 6

Tejida (8, second-highest rating) adjusted to her outside post-position and settled back to take the difficult allowance from off-the-pace. Long Approach (10) went wide into the first turn and that affected the field's highest rating, who was still able to finish third.

Jan 9 Friday: Race 8 Gulfstream Park 1 1/16 miles turf 46k AOC

2009-01-09T13:50:00.005-05:00

Jan 9 Gulfstream Race 8; 1 1/16 miles turf
(Horse: Pre-race rating)

(AE) Long Approach- 10
(AE) Tejida- 8
Mousse Au Chocolat- 8
Stormin Mon- 7
Sway- 7
Ashley River- 6
Lady On Holiday- 6
Silversider- 6
African Violet- 5
Jazz Jam- 4.8
Star Dixie- 4.5
Avie's Tale- 4
Armonk- 1.9
Cape Cod Lady- 1

Thursday Jan 8: Gulfstream Race 7 AOC 1 1/16 turf

2009-01-05T13:12:00.005-05:00

Gulfstream Race 7: Allowance Optional Claimers 46k 1 1/16 miles turf
(Horse: Pre-race System Rating)

Ballast- 10
Jamaludin- 8
(AE) Optimer- 8
Just As Well- 7.5
Tastefully Smart- 7.5
Magic Mecke- 6.5
Headsandtales- 6.2
Gaelic Storm- 5
Baltimore Bob- 4.5
Slambino- 4
High Ceiling- 4
Electricity- 3

Jan 4 Santa Anita: San Gorgonio H. G II 1 1/8 miles turf

2009-01-03T12:20:00.004-05:00

Race 7 Santa Anita San Gorgonio
(Horse; Pre-race System Rating)

Marzelline- 7
High Heel Sneakers- 6.8
Green Lyons- 6.2
Tizfiz- 6
Valbenny- 6
Solar Miss- 5.8
Meribel- 4.8
Belmont Cat- 4.8

Not much seperating this group of fillies. From top to bottom there is only a 2.2 range. Marzelline (7) draws the highest rating. In August at Del Mar she handled High Heel Sneakers (6.8) and Green Lyons (6.5).

Valbenny (6) takes a logical drop and returns to a comfortable distance.

Gulfstream The Hal's Hope Grade III 1 mile 100k

2009-01-02T14:35:00.004-05:00

Saturday Jan 3: Gulfstream Race 8 Hal's Hope 1 mile
(Horse; Pre-race System rating)

Bribon- 10
Now A Victor- 10
Fearless Vision- 8.5
Delightful Kiss- 6.5
Bullsbay- 6
True Resurgence- 6
National Pride- 6
Cuba- 5.5
It's A Bird- 5
Famous Patriot- 5
Finallymadeit- 4
Rexson's Rose- 1
Storm In May- 1

RESULTS: Dec 21; Hollywood Dahlia Handicap G II

2008-12-22T16:11:00.003-05:00

RESULTS Dahlia Handicap
Horse (Pre-race System rating)

Vacare- 9 ($3.60)
Gotta Have Her- 6.7
In My Glory- 5.3
I Can See- 5
Lady Digby- 5.8
Green Lyons- 7
Belle Allure- 5.5
Don't Forget Faith- 3

The race panned out exactly how I figured. With In My Glory (5.3) and Gotta Have Her (6.7) out in front. Both were game but were outclassed by the winner, Vacare (9), who lived up to her HIGHEST SYSTEM RATING.

Hollywood Sunday Dec 21 GII Dahlia Handicap

2008-12-19T15:01:00.005-05:00

Race 8 Dahlia Handicap G II 150k 1 1/16 miles turf F&M 3&up

Vacare- 9
Green Lyons- 7
Gotta Have Her- 6.7
Lady Digby- 5.8
Bella Allure- 5.5
Valbenny- 5.5
In My Glory- 5.3
I Can See-5
Place De L'Etoile- 5
Storybook- 5
Don't Forget Faith- 3
Sensational Love- 3

It looks like In My Glory (Honour and Glory) and Gotta Have Her (Royal Academy) are the only ones who want to be up front. In My Glory's outside post does not help her chances.

Vacare (Lear Fan) comes in with the highest rating (9). The well-traveled Christophe Clement trainee finally has settled in So. California and has made a nice stay of it. In her last she finished just two lengths behind the magnificent Forever Together in the BC Filly & Mare Turf.

This race has plenty of question marks starting with European invaders, Belle Allure (Numerous), Place De L'Etoile (Sadler's Wells) and Don't Forget Faith (Victory Gallop).

Good luck here, this is a tough one.

The System enjoying early success

2008-12-16T16:33:00.003-05:00

Getting Started

The System was created in late 2006. I started the System to get an edge on those who evaluate talent and handicappers.

Strengths

The system's strengths are to determine if a horse fits in a particular race, his/her chances in that race, and their form coming into the race. The System can help handicappers discover a 'fraud' or a 'live horse with value'.

Intro

The System is based on numbers. The higher the number a horse receives, the more prepared and suited the horse is for that race. Ex) Horse A may receive an 8 and Horse B may receive a 6.5. Like all theories and strategies in racing, the trip of both horses and pace of the race, can allow Horse B to beat Horse A although, Horse A has a slightly better pre-race form.

Early but Often

I started publishing The System's ratings in November 2008. Of published races on this site, The System has had the eventual-winner rated in the top 2 of the field 10/11 times, for 91%.